Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Current odds

• December 31 — 23.0%
• September 30 — 13.0%
• August 31 — 7.0%
• July 31 — 1.7%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

About this market: This market tracks whether Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will be photographed or videotaped before various deadlines. Khamenei was wounded in the February 2026 strike that killed his father and has not appeared publicly since becoming Supreme Leader in March. The market tests whether Iran's invisible ruler will emerge or maintain his unprecedented absence through year-end; read the full analysis.