Netanyahu out by...?

Current odds

• December 31 — 54.0%
• June 30 — 0.7%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

About this market: This market tracks whether Benjamin Netanyahu will exit as Israeli Prime Minister before 2027. The Knesset voted unanimously in May 2026 to dissolve and trigger snap elections for September or October, with Netanyahu confirming he will seek re-election against a unified opposition led by Bennett and Lapid. Polling shows a tight race with the anti-Netanyahu bloc holding a narrow seat advantage. For a complete breakdown of the probabilities and leverage trading opportunities, read the full analysis.