Next French Presidential Election

Current odds

• Marine Le Pen — 30.6%
• Édouard Philippe — 25.5%
• Jean-Luc Mélenchon — 13.5%
• Gabriel Attal — 4.0%
• François Hollande — 3.5%
• Jordan Bardella — 3.3%
• Bruno Retailleau — 2.5%
• David Lisnard — 2.2%
• Dominique de Villepin — 1.9%
• Sarah Knafo — 1.8%
• Raphaël Glucksmann — 1.7%
• Sébastien Lecornu — 1.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

About this market: France elects its next president in spring 2027, with the campaign now in full swing. The race features a fragmented field spanning the nationalist right, traditional conservatives, centrists, and a divided left. A major court verdict in July 2026 could reshape the entire contest by determining whether Marine Le Pen can legally run. For the complete breakdown of positioning, catalysts, and leverage angles, read the full analysis.