Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?

Current odds

• Thorsten Frei — 93.4%
• Carsten Linnemann — 3.4%
• Alexander Hoffmann — 2.0%
• Nina Warken — 0.4%
• Michael Brand — 0.4%
• Günter Krings — 0.2%
• Alexander Dobrindt — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/). This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify. If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

About this market: Frei leads the "Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?" market, ahead of Linnemann and Hoffmann. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.