Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Current odds

• Starmer - UK PM — 64.0%
• Petro - Colombia President — 31.0%
• Díaz-Canel - Cuba President — 4.5%
• Netanyahu - Israel PM — 1.1%
• Sánchez - Spanish PM — 0.9%
• None before 2027 — 0.9%
• Zelenskyy - Ukraine President — 0.6%
• Erdoğan - Türkiye President — 0.5%
• Putin - Russia President — 0.5%
• Takaichi - Japan PM — 0.5%
• Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President — 0.5%
• Macron - France President — 0.4%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: PM leads the Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) market, ahead of President and President. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.