Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Current odds

• Abiy Ahmed — 95.5%
• Gedion Timothewos — 1.6%
• Alesa Mengesha — 1.0%
• Shimelis Abdisa — 0.8%
• Belete Molla — 0.5%
• Demeke Mekonnen — 0.5%
• Berhanu Nega — 0.2%
• Adanech Abiebie — 0.2%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: This prediction market tracks who will next hold the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia, with incumbent Abiy Ahmed commanding overwhelming probability following his Prosperity Party's landslide victory in the June 2026 general election. The market prices in the structural dominance of the ruling party, which controls over 80% of parliamentary seats, while distributing minimal probability across seven named alternatives including Addis Ababa Mayor Adanech Abiebie, opposition leader Belete Molla, and former Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen. Key catalysts that could shift these odds include constitutional reform efforts, escalation of the Amhara insurgency, renewed conflict in Tigray, or regional tensions with Eritrea - read the full analysis