Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Current odds

• Alexandru Nazare — 36.5%
• Sorin Grindeanu — 13.6%
• Siegfried Mureșan — 4.9%
• Ilie Bolojan — 4.6%
• Dan Motreanu — 4.3%
• Eugen Tomac — 3.0%
• Dragoș Pîslaru — 2.6%
• Radu Burnete — 2.3%
• Șerban Matei — 2.3%
• Delia Velculescu — 2.1%
• Cătălin Predoiu — 1.9%
• George Simion — 1.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: Romania is in its third month without a confirmed government as President Nicusor Dan struggles to find a Prime Minister candidate with parliamentary support. Alexandru Nazare, the current Finance Minister, leads at 45% odds as the consensus choice for a technocratic truce government, while PSD leader Sorin Grindeanu trails at 24%. The August 31 EU funding deadline adds pressure to resolve the deadlock. Read the full analysis.