Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Current odds

• Magdalena Andersson — 86.5%
• Ulf Kristersson — 11.5%
• Jimmie Åkesson — 1.9%
• Ebba Busch — 0.2%
• Daniel Helldén — 0.1%
• Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist — 0.1%
• Nooshi Dadgostar — 0.1%
• Simona Mohamsson — 0.1%
• Amanda Lind — 0.1%
• Anna-Karin Hatt — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: Sweden holds its general election on September 13, 2026, with voters choosing 349 members of the Riksdag who will then determine the next Prime Minister. The race has become a referendum on the governing Tido coalition, which brought together Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats support for the first time in 2022. Prediction markets offer a way to track how polling shifts, scandal coverage, and campaign dynamics translate into implied probabilities for each potential outcome. For a detailed breakdown of current odds, bloc arithmetic, and the specific catalysts that could reprice this market before September, read the full analysis