Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Current odds

• Yulia Navalnaya — 8.5%
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy — 6.9%
• UNRWA — 4.7%
• Pope Leo XIV — 3.3%
• Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani — 2.9%
• International Court of Justice — 2.4%
• Donald Trump — 2.4%
• Julian Assange — 1.5%
• António Guterres — 1.4%
• Narendra Modi — 1.4%
• Greta Thunberg — 1.1%
• Ahmed al-Sharaa — 0.9%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

About this market: The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee to individuals or organizations that have made outstanding contributions to peace. This year's field includes 287 candidates ranging from political leaders and diplomats to humanitarian organizations and activists. The Committee operates in complete secrecy until the October announcement, creating a market where narrative momentum drives significant price swings. With no clear favorite and multiple plausible winners, the structure rewards traders who can identify mispriced candidates and time their entries around media cycles - read the full analysis.