Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Current odds

• UNRWA — 11.9%
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy — 10.5%
• Donald Trump — 8.0%
• Yulia Navalnaya — 7.0%
• Pope Leo XIV — 5.0%
• Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani — 3.8%
• International Court of Justice — 2.3%
• Narendra Modi — 2.2%
• Greta Thunberg — 1.4%
• António Guterres — 1.4%
• Xi Jinping — 1.1%
• Ahmed al-Sharaa — 1.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

About this market: UNRWA leads the Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 market, ahead of Zelenskyy and Trump. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.