Precipitation in Hong Kong in July?

Current odds

• 475-500mm — 1.9%
• 400-425mm — 0.7%
• 425-450mm — 0.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

About this market: 475-500mm leads the "Precipitation in Hong Kong in July?" market, ahead of 400-425mm and 425-450mm. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.