Presidential Election Winner 2028

Current odds

• JD Vance — 20.8%
• Marco Rubio — 13.2%
• Gavin Newsom — 11.8%
• Jon Ossoff — 9.3%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 9.0%
• Kamala Harris — 4.8%
• Josh Shapiro — 2.5%
• Pete Buttigieg — 2.5%
• Donald Trump — 2.4%
• Thomas Massie — 1.7%
• Ron DeSantis — 1.6%
• Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson — 1.6%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

About this market: The 2028 presidential race is already moving on Polymarket, with the field fractured across more than a dozen candidates and no clear favorite. The current leader is losing ground while insurgent candidates are surging on media catalysts - creating the kind of volatility that active traders position around. With major repricing events ahead including the 2026 midterms, primary debates, and early state contests, the next two years offer multiple windows for leveraged entries and exits. For the full breakdown of who is moving and why, read the full analysis.