Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: This market resolves Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia before January 1, 2027 - whether through resignation, removal, death, or any other circumstance. The contract has seen notable movement in 2026 following EU intelligence reports about heightened Kremlin security and internal elite tensions around the Shoigu faction. With Russian Duma elections in September and the resolution date on December 31, the remaining months offer multiple windows where new information could shift the odds. For the complete breakdown of scenarios, catalysts, and leverage positioning, read the full analysis.