Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Current odds

• Below 190 — 18.5%
• 190-194 — 12.5%
• 200-204 — 10.9%
• 195-199 — 10.0%
• 205-209 — 9.4%
• 225-229 — 8.8%
• 210-214 — 7.8%
• 215-219 — 7.3%
• 220-224 — 6.3%
• 230+ — 2.7%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

About this market: Below 190 leads the "Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" market, ahead of 190-194 and 200-204. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.