Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Current odds

• J.D. Vance — 46.0%
• Marco Rubio — 27.8%
• Ron DeSantis — 3.0%
• Donald Trump — 2.1%
• Donald Trump Jr. — 1.5%
• Tucker Carlson — 1.4%
• Glenn Youngkin — 0.9%
• Vivek Ramaswamy — 0.9%
• Ted Cruz — 0.9%
• Ivanka Trump — 0.8%
• Greg Abbott — 0.8%
• Elon Musk — 0.8%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

About this market: The race for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination is already taking shape with Vice President Vance as the presumptive front-runner and Secretary of State Rubio emerging as a serious challenger. The field includes governors, senators, and Trump family members - each facing distinct paths to the nomination as the party prepares for its first post-Trump primary. Key inflection points include the 2026 midterms and Vance's expected decision on whether to run. For a complete breakdown of the candidates, catalysts, and trading angles, read the full analysis.