Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Current odds

• December 31 — 37.0%
• October 31 — 22.0%
• August 31 — 8.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: This market tracks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a formal ceasefire agreement by specified deadlines in 2026. Resolution requires a mutually agreed suspension of fighting officially announced by both governments or confirmed by credible reporting. The market structure offers multiple timeframes from August through December, allowing traders to express views on both whether a deal happens and when. Territorial control, security guarantees, and the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant remain key obstacles; read the full analysis.