Satoshi's identity be proven by...?

Current odds

• December 31 — 2.5%
• July 31 — 0.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.

About this market: Will Satoshi's identity be proven/revealed by a deadline? This crypto market is actively priced by prediction-market traders, and the odds move as new information arrives. Our full analysis breaks down the current odds, the contenders and the catalysts that drive them, and how to take a leveraged position on the outcome. read the full analysis