Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?

Current odds

• October 31 — 80.0%
• October 15 — 62.0%
• September 30 — 36.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies. Announcements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or may operate in the future, describe work underway to restore operation, or frame resumption as expected, planned, or conditional, will not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent contradictory statements, or alternative information from other sources. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia.

About this market: October 31 leads the "Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?" market, ahead of October 15 and September 30. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.