Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

Current odds

• Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia — 67.5%
• Student List – Students Win — 32.5%
• Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor — 0.1%
• SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak — 0.1%
• European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš — 0.1%
• Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) — 0.1%
• Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! — 0.1%
• Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić — 0.1%
• Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović — 0.1%
• Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).

About this market: Serbia leads the "Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner" market, ahead of Win and Pásztor. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.