US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Current odds

• December 31 — 9.5%
• September 30 — 3.5%
• August 31 — 1.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: This market tracks whether the United States will obtain Iranian enriched uranium by various deadlines through 2026. The June Trump-Pezeshkian MoU established a diplomatic framework with IAEA-supervised down-blending as the baseline method, collapsing near-term resolution odds while boosting year-end expectations. Key catalysts include the June Vance talks in Switzerland, the August snapback deadline, and the September IAEA verification meeting - each capable of repricing the entire board. For a detailed breakdown of catalyst timing and leveraged positioning strategies, read the full analysis.