Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

Current odds

• Delcy Rodríguez — 94.0%
• María Corina Machado — 2.7%
• Dinorah Figuera — 0.9%
• No Head of State — 0.6%
• Edmundo González — 0.5%
• Marco Rubio — 0.4%
• Pete Hegseth — 0.2%
• Jorge Rodríguez — 0.2%
• Donald Trump — 0.2%
• Dan Caine — 0.1%
• Diosdado Cabello Rondón — 0.1%
• Evan Pettus — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

About this market: Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026? Traders price this politics market continuously, and the odds move as new information lands. Our analysis breaks down how the market is priced, what would have to change for it to move, and how to take a leveraged position on the outcome. read the full analysis