Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Current odds

• Nicolás Maduro — 82.5%
• Delcy Rodríguez — 8.5%
• María Corina Machado — 3.0%
• No Head of State — 1.8%
• Edmundo González — 0.5%
• Jorge Rodríguez — 0.4%
• Diosdado Cabello Rondón — 0.4%
• Vladimir Padrino López — 0.2%
• Pete Hegseth — 0.1%
• Marco Rubio — 0.1%
• Donald Trump — 0.1%
• Dinorah Figuera — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

About this market: Venezuela faces a constitutional inflection point with its detained former president awaiting trial in New York while an acting president approaches the end of her interim mandate. The July deadline forces a decision on leadership recognition that will reshape the entire political landscape. Opposition figures in exile are negotiating their return, and the question of who leads Venezuela by year-end remains genuinely unresolved. For the full breakdown of positioning opportunities and catalyst dates, read the full analysis.