Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

Current odds

• China — 77.0%
• No meeting by December 31 — 18.5%
• Gulf country — 1.8%
• Russia — 1.3%
• Other — 1.2%
• United States — 1.1%
• Turkey — 0.4%
• Japan — 0.2%
• Other EU country — 0.2%
• Australia — 0.2%
• South Korea — 0.2%
• Ukraine — 0.2%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: This market asks where Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will next meet in person before the end of 2026, with "No meeting" as its own outcome. Under the rules, even a handshake or a brief direct conversation counts, so shared attendance at a summit can settle it without any formal bilateral. Pricing has centered on the APEC leaders' meeting in Shenzhen, China, in November, with the US-hosted G20 in December as the main fallback venue, and it moves on travel confirmations, Kremlin statements and the state of US-Russia talks on Ukraine. For the full breakdown of every venue, the price history and the key dates, read the full analysis