Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Current odds

• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — 95.0%
• Fernando Haddad — 2.3%
• Michelle Bolsonaro — 2.3%
• Tarcisio de Frietas — 1.6%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

About this market: Silva leads the "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" market, ahead of Haddad and Bolsonaro. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.