Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Current odds

• Druzkhivka — 27.5%
• Sloviansk — 13.0%
• Kramatorsk — 12.0%
• Sumy — 4.5%
• Zaporizhia — 3.4%
• Kherson — 2.0%
• Kharkiv — 1.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of the specified city or settlement between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

About this market: This market tracks which Ukrainian cities, including Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Kharkiv, Russian forces will enter by December 31, 2026. Each city resolves Yes if the ISW map shows any Russian infiltration, advance or control shading inside its municipal boundary that survives a full daily update, so a small infiltration group can qualify without a capture. The board is driven by the fighting around Kostiantynivka and Dobropillia on the southern approaches to the Donbas fortress belt and by Ukraine's counteroffensive north of Lyman. For the current odds, the biggest movers and the catalysts to watch, read the full analysis