Which company has best AI model end of July?

Current odds

• Anthropic — 97.5%
• Google — 1.5%
• OpenAI — 0.4%
• Moonshot — 0.4%
• Alibaba — 0.1%
• Z.ai — 0.1%
• xAI — 0.1%
• DeepSeek — 0.1%
• Mistral — 0.1%
• Meituan — 0.1%
• Microsoft — 0.1%
• Meta — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

About this market: Prediction markets price Anthropic at 87% to hold the best AI model by July 31, 2026, with Google's delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro the only realistic challenger at 12%. Claude Fable 5 leads on SWE-bench, LMArena, and most frontier benchmarks, but the resolution hinges on whether Google ships before month-end. OpenAI and xAI trade below 3% combined as their flagship models remain in preview rather than public availability. read the full analysis