Which continent will win the World Cup?

Current odds

• Europe (UEFA) — 59.0%
• South America (CONMEBOL) — 41.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the continent of the country that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, currently scheduled for June 11-July 19, 2026. For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent). The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: The 2026 World Cup continental market shows Europe at 78.5% to produce the winner, with five UEFA nations in the quarterfinals. South America trades at 19.5%, resting entirely on defending champion Argentina, while Africa holds at 2.75% with Morocco's historic run. The France-Morocco quarterfinal on July 9 will be decisive for African probability. Read the full analysis.