Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Current odds

• Venezuela — 8.5%
• Lebanon — 6.5%
• Tunisia — 5.5%
• Saudi Arabia — 5.1%
• Indonesia — 4.3%
• Pakistan — 4.3%
• Iraq — 4.2%
• Syria — 3.5%
• Cuba — 3.4%
• North Korea — 3.2%
• Afghanistan — 2.9%
• Qatar — 2.8%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

About this market: This market asks which of 15 countries, including Venezuela, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Indonesia, will formally recognize Israel as a state by December 31, 2026. Each country is a separate Yes/No contract, and only a government's formal recognition counts; announcements of intent, frameworks or consular deals do not. An earlier June 30 version of the same question resolved No for every country, so traders watch for concrete steps such as reopened embassies, exchanged ambassadors or a signed normalization deal. Key drivers include Venezuela's post-Maduro realignment, U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon talks, the Saudi nuclear deal's Abraham Accords condition and Israel's October 27 election; read the full analysis.