Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Current odds

• Venezuela — 21.5%
• Lebanon — 18.5%
• Indonesia — 12.0%
• Syria — 11.5%
• Kuwait — 8.5%
• Cuba — 8.5%
• Bangladesh — 6.5%
• Tunisia — 6.0%
• Pakistan — 5.5%
• Iran — 4.8%
• Iraq — 3.4%
• Malaysia — 3.2%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

About this market: Venezuela leads the "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" market, ahead of Lebanon and Indonesia. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.