Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Current odds

• Oman — 5.5%
• Qatar — 5.3%
• Kuwait — 4.5%
• Saudi Arabia — 4.5%
• Lebanon — 4.5%
• Azerbaijan — 4.4%
• Turkey — 3.9%
• Pakistan — 3.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: This market asks which of nine countries (Lebanon, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan) will formally sign a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords before 2027. Each country is its own Yes/No contract, and a deal only counts if both governments acknowledge it and it is clearly attributed to the Accords, so a security pact or framework agreement alone does not resolve Yes. Prices are driven by the U.S. push to tie Saudi normalization to a civil nuclear deal, the direct Israel-Lebanon talks, the U.S.-Iran negotiations and the outcome of Israel's October 2026 election. read the full analysis