Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Current odds

• Avengers: Doomsday — 56.5%
• Spider-Man: Brand New Day — 44.0%
• The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping — 0.1%
• Dune: Messiah — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

About this market: Spider-Man: Brand New Day set a new domestic opening-weekend record in early August, so this market now hinges on one question: can Avengers: Doomsday beat that number when it opens on December 18? Doomsday brings record presale pace and the first Avengers ensemble since Endgame, but it opens without U.S. IMAX screens and on the same day as Dune: Part Three. The market resolves on The Numbers' final three-day figure, not studio estimates, so a close weekend can keep the price moving after the Sunday estimate. For the price history, presale data and dated catalysts, read the full analysis.