Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?

Current odds

• JD Vance — 16.0%
• Abbas Araghchi — 15.0%
• Steve Witkoff — 14.0%
• Jared Kushner — 9.0%
• Shehbaz Sharif — 7.2%
• Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani — 7.0%
• Donald Trump — 5.9%
• Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan — 5.0%
• Abdel Fattah el-Sisi — 4.8%
• Masoud Pezeshkian — 4.2%
• Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah — 3.8%
• Recep Tayyip Erdogan — 3.8%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location. Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event. If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: Vance leads the Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony? market, ahead of Araghchi and Witkoff. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.