Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Current odds

• Gadi Eizenkot — 50.3%
• Benjamin Netanyahu — 34.5%
• Naftali Bennett — 6.5%
• Avigdor Lieberman — 4.0%
• Itamar Ben Gvir — 0.4%
• Gilad Erdan — 0.4%
• Yair Golan — 0.2%
• Gideon Sa’ar — 0.2%
• Yariv Levin — 0.2%
• Yoaz Hendel — 0.2%
• Amir Ohana — 0.2%
• Yair Lapid — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: Israel heads to the polls in October 2026 with the race for prime minister tighter than it has been in years. Former IDF chief Gadi Eizenkot has surged on the back of voter backlash to the US-Iran agreement, while Benjamin Netanyahu fights to hold together his coalition bloc. The outcome hinges on August negotiations, potential opposition mergers, and whether security-focused voters stick with the new challenger or return to the incumbent. For the full breakdown of the race and what it means for leveraged positions, read the full analysis.