Who will enter Iran by June 30?

Current odds

• Any U.S. House member — 1.2%
• Any U.S. Senator — 0.8%
• Donald Trump — 0.7%
• Pete Hegseth — 0.4%
• JD Vance — 0.4%
• Benjamin Netanyahu — 0.3%
• Marco Rubio — 0.3%
• Jared Kushner — 0.3%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: member leads the "Who will enter Iran by June 30?" market, ahead of Senator and Trump. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.