Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Current odds

• Susie Wiles — 42.0%
• Pete Hegseth — 41.0%
• Kristi Noem — 26.5%
• Marco Rubio — 22.5%
• Stephen Miller — 21.0%
• Tom Homan — 20.5%
• Kash Patel — 19.5%
• Howard Lutnick — 19.5%
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — 16.5%
• Russell Vought — 16.5%
• Lee Zeldin — 12.0%
• John Ratcliffe — 11.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

About this market: Wiles leads the "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" market, ahead of Hegseth and Noem. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 4x.