Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Current odds

• Steve Bannon — 8.6%
• Matt Gaetz — 7.0%
• Joe Exotic — 5.5%
• Diddy — 5.0%
• Elizabeth Holmes — 4.8%
• Ghislaine Maxwell — 4.4%
• Nicolas Maduro — 3.9%
• Himself — 3.9%
• Edward Snowden — 3.6%
• Sam Bankman-Fried — 3.6%
• Julian Assange — 3.5%
• Derek Chauvin — 3.3%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

About this market: Who will Trump pardon before 2027? Traders price this politics market continuously, and the odds move as new information lands. Our analysis breaks down how the market is priced, what would have to change for it to move, and how to take a leveraged position on the outcome. read the full analysis