Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?

Current odds

• Kevin Warsh — 4.5%
• Mohammed bin Salman — 2.1%
• J.D. Vance — 1.8%
• Melania Trump — 0.3%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.

About this market: Warsh leads the "Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?" market, ahead of Salman and Vance. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.