Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Current odds

• Jacob Tsimerman — 98.2%
• Yu Deng — 97.2%
• Hong Wang — 97.2%
• John Pardon — 96.8%
• Jack Thorne — 3.8%
• Alexander Efimov — 2.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

About this market: Tsimerman leads the "Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?" market, ahead of Deng and Wang. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.