Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Current odds

• 1510 — 38.0%
• 1530 — 10.0%
• 1540 — 9.5%
• 1550 — 6.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

About this market: 1510 leads the "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?" market, ahead of 1530 and 1540. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.