Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?

Current odds

• December 31 — 99.8%
• October 31 — 98.7%
• September 30 — 2.2%
• September 15 — 0.2%
• September 9 — 0.0%
• September 10 — 0.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: December 31 leads the "Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?" market, ahead of October 31 and September 30. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.