Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

About this market: This market tracks whether China will launch a military invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026. The contract has seen dramatic repricing as intelligence assessments, diplomatic signals, and observable military indicators have systematically reduced perceived invasion risk through the first half of the year. Key catalysts ahead include Taiwan's Han Kuang exercises in August, Xi Jinping's National Day speech in October, and Taiwan local elections in November - each representing windows where leverage traders may see volatility. For a detailed breakdown of the price movements, catalyst calendar, and positioning considerations, read the full analysis.