Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

About this market: Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Traders price this geopolitics market continuously, and the odds move as new information lands. Our analysis breaks down how the market is priced, what would have to change for it to move, and how to take a leveraged position on the outcome. read the full analysis