Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

About this market: Will Hamas formally agree to disarm in Gaza by December 31, 2026? This market resolves on an official Hamas announcement of disarmament, including staged or partial disarmament within an acknowledged process, but conditional plans and statements of intent do not count. Prices swing sharply on headlines from the Board of Peace roadmap, Hamas leadership statements and Israel's position on withdrawal sequencing, while a run of earlier deadlines in this series resolved No. Israel's October 2026 election and the coalition that follows are the key windows to watch. read the full analysis