Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: Will Russia invade another country in 2026? You can trade either side with leverage up to 5x. Prices update live from the order book, and settlement is non-custodial on-chain.