Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Current odds

• June 30, 2027 — 41.0%
• December 31 — 10.0%
• September 30 — 7.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

About this market: This market tracks whether Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by various deadlines through mid-2027. Alito, 76, has served since 2006 and authored the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade. Speculation centers on whether he will retire while Republicans control the Senate to ensure a conservative replacement. The market structure offers contracts for September 2026, December 2026, and June 2027 deadlines. read the full analysis