Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

About this market: This market tracks whether any wallet attributed to Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto will show outbound transactions in 2026. Satoshi's roughly 1.1 million BTC - worth over $85 billion - has remained untouched since mining ended in 2010, making this one of crypto's most watched dormancy questions. Resolution depends on Arkham Intel Explorer's entity tagging. read the full analysis