Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.

About this market: The Will Satoshi's Identity Be Revealed by December 31 market asks whether the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, will be definitively proven before the end of the year. It resolves Yes on definitive evidence, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets, though a credible consensus of reporting can also count. Investigative journalism, documentaries, legal fights over government records and any movement of the dormant early-mined coins drive the odds. Years of failed claims have taught traders to discount circumstantial evidence that comes without cryptographic proof. For the candidates, the evidence and what it would actually take to settle the question, read the full analysis.