Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: This binary market asks whether the Islamic Republic of Iran will cease to govern by the end of 2026. The question gained urgency after the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, though rapid succession and IRGC institutional cohesion have since stabilized expectations. Traders weigh demonstrated regime resilience against severe economic pressures including record inflation and ongoing civil unrest. For the full leverage trading analysis including upcoming nuclear negotiation catalysts, read the full analysis.