Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Current odds

• December 31 — 5.5%
• September 30 — 1.8%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

About this market: This market tracks whether any U.S. executive branch official will go on record confirming that extraterrestrial life exists before 2027. The distinction between disclosure and confirmation has proven critical - three rounds of Pentagon file releases under the PURSUE program generated headlines and volume while falling short of the legal standard for resolution. With the Disclosure Forum, ongoing file releases, and the AARO annual report all ahead, the catalyst calendar offers multiple windows for leveraged positioning. For the complete breakdown of price action, catalyst timing, and trade setups, read the full analysis.