Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

About this market: Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? This geopolitics market is actively priced by prediction-market traders, and the odds move as new information arrives. Our full analysis breaks down the current odds, the contenders and the catalysts that drive them, and how to take a leveraged position on the outcome. read the full analysis