Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

About this market: This market tracks whether the United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran before the end of 2026. Following months of military strikes and naval blockades, a diplomatic framework signed in Switzerland has dramatically shifted expectations toward a negotiated resolution. The coming months will test whether the ceasefire holds through nuclear talks or whether the military option returns to the table. For a detailed breakdown of the catalysts and trading angles, read the full analysis.