Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

About this market: This market asks whether five or more natural volcanic eruptions rated VEI 4 or higher will occur anywhere in the world during calendar year 2026. It resolves on the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program's cumulative 2026 counts for VEI 4, 5 and 6 eruptions as recorded in its dataset by the end of March 2027, so eruptions late in the year and VEI ratings still being finalized can both affect the outcome. Historically such explosive eruptions average only around two per year, so reaching five would take an unusual cluster of large events. Traders watch volcano monitoring alerts, eruption column heights and later VEI reclassifications as the count builds - read the full analysis